Esrael and Iran War

 

Esrael and Iran War:

Korean War: US President Harry Truman framed the 1950 aggression as ensuring collective security, but the conflict escalated into a three-year war, entrenching a long-term US military position in South Korea.  It has faced a lot of conflict with US military. The fighting ended with an armistice in 1953, leaving the war technically unresolved. US has been one after another for the sorvenity of other countries.

Vietnam War: US escalation of the war, triggered when the US military reported an attack on one of its warships in the Gulf of Tonkin, expanded an initial “response” into a long and costly conflict whose aims kept shifting. The war, which included large-scale aerial herbicide spraying, ended with a US withdrawal in 1973 and the collapse of South Vietnam in 1975. Later investigations revealed that the Gulf of Tonkin attack never happened.

Naravane Book - FOUR STARS OF DESTINY

 

General Manoj Mukund Naravane PVSM AVSM VSM SM is a retired Indian Army General who served as the 28th Chief of the Army Staff, as well as the temporary Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee from 15 December 2021 until his superannuation on 30 April 2022.

LIEUTENANT GENERAL YOGESH JOSHI, the chief of the Indian Army’s Northern Command, received a phone call at 8.15 pm on 31 August2020. The information he received alarmed him. Four Chinese tanks, supported by infantry, had begun moving up a steep mountain track towards Rechin La in eastern Ladakh. Joshi reported the movement to thechief of army staff, General Manoj Mukund Naravane, who immediately grasped the severity of the situation. The tanks were within a few hundred metres of Indian positions on the Kailash Range, the strategic high ground that Indian forces had seized, hours earlier, in a dangerous race with China’s People’s Liberation Army. In this terrain on the disputed Line ofActual Control—the de facto border between the two countries—every metre of elevation translates to strategic dominance. The Indian soldiers fired an illuminating round, a kind of warning shot. Ithad no effect. The Chinese kept advancing. Naravane began making franticcalls to the leaders of India’s political and military establishment, including Rajnath Singh, the defence minister; Ajit Doval, the national security advisor; General Bipin Rawat, the chief of defence staff; and S Jaishankar,the minister of external affairs. “To each and every one my question was,‘What are my orders?’” Naravane writes in his as-yet-unpublished memoir Four Stars of Destiny.The situation was deteriorating dramatically and demanded clarity. Therewas an existing protocol. Naravane had clear orders not to open fire “till cleared from the very top.” His superiors did not give any clear directive. Minutes ticked by. At 9.10 pm, Joshi called again. The Chinese tanks continued to advance and were now less than a kilometre from the pass. At9.25 pm, Naravane called Rajnath again, asking “for clear directions.” Nonecame. Meanwhile, a message arrived from the PLA commander, Major Generally Lin. He proposed a cooling down of sorts: both sides should stop further movement, and local commanders would meet at the pass at 9.30am the following morning, with three representatives each. It seemed like reasonable proposition. For a moment, it appeared that an off-ramp was emerging. At 10 pm, Naravane called Rajnath and Doval to relay this message. Ten minutes later, Northern Command rang again. The Chinese tanks had not stopped. They were now only five hundred metres from the top. Naravane recalls Joshi saying that the “only way to stop them was byopening up with our own medium artillery, which he said was ready and waiting.” Artillery duels were routine on the Line of Control with Pakistan, where divisional and corps commanders had been delegated the authorityto fire hundreds of rounds per day without asking anyone up the chain. Butthis was China. This was different. An artillery duel with the PLA couldescalate into something far larger.“My position was critical,” Naravane writes. He was caught between “theCommand who wanted to open fire with all possible means” and a government committee “which had yet to give me clear-cut executive orders.” In the operations room at army headquarters, options were being considered and discarded. The entire Northern Front was on high alert.Areas of likely clash were being monitored. But the decision point was atRechin LaNaravane made yet another call to the defence minister, who promised tocall back. Time stretched. Each minute was a minute closer to Chinesetanks reaching the top. Rajnath called back at 10.30 pm. He had spoken toPrime Minister Narendra Modi, whose instructions consisted of a singlesentence: “Jo uchit samjho, woh karo”—do whatever you deem appropriate.This was to be “purely a military decision.” Modi had been consulted. Hehad been briefed. But he had declined to make the call. “I had been handeda hot potato,” Naravane recalls. “With this carte blanche, the onus was nowtotally on me.”It was a moment of profound isolation. Naravane sat “with the map of J &K and Ladakh on one wall, Eastern Command on another.” He could visualise “the location of each and every unit and formation” even on theunmarked maps. A hundred different thoughts flashed through his mind.The country was reeling under COVID-19. The economy was faltering.Global supply chains had fractured. “Would we be able to ensure a steadysupply of spares, etc., under these conditions, in case of a long-drawn-outaction? Who were our supporters in the global arena, and what about thecollusive threat from China and Pakistan?”They had the requisite reserves, he concluded. “We were ready in allrespects,” Naravane writes, “but did I really want to start a war?”GOING TO WAR can never be a purely military decision. It is taken bydemocratically elected political leadership. During the 1999 Kargil conflict,under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, every action was debated and approved inmeetings of the cabinet committee on security—India’s final decisionmaking body on national security, chaired by the prime minister. Memoirsfrom that period show the CCS being able to own its decisions and issueclear directives to military commanders. The same was true of IndiraGandhi during the 1971 war that led to the liberation of Bangladesh.But, in August 2020, according to Naravane’s account, there was neither anyauthorisation to fire nor any restriction. No guardrails. No contingencyframework. By handing such a monumental decision to the army, the primeminister had effectively abdicated the responsibility of initiating, oravoiding, a military conflict with China. It is not the army chief’s role toweigh India’s political and economic situation, assess potential USdiplomatic backing, factor in the COVID-19 crisis, or calculate the risk of Pakistan and China combining forces. Those assessments are meant to bemade by the government. Political instructions to the military on suchmatters must be precise and unambiguous, not reduced to a vagueinjunction to act at one’s discretion.Modi’s abdication stands in sharp contrast to the public image he hascultivated since 2014. In limited skirmishes with Pakistan, the Indian media—and later films and web series—have portrayed him as a bold, decisive,hands-on leader. Modi himself has claimed that he personally cleared the Balakot air strikes, in February 2019, despite poor weather, suggesting thatthe air force could take advantage of cloud cover to “escape the radar” ofthe enemy. The Modi government did enough Pakistan-bashing and usedthe Central Reserve Police Force troops killed in Pulwama to successfullycampaign for a second term. China does not lend itself to suchgrandstanding. It is, in all respects, a far more formidable antagonist. But,for a government deeply invested in narrative control, Naravane’s accountposes a serious problem.

SIR and Election Commission

 

SIR and Election Commission

Epstein files

 

The Epstein files are a collection of millions of documents, images and videos detailing the criminal activities of American financier and convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, who was imprisioned and later on, suspicious death is being declared. Related websites are :

https://www.justice.gov/news

https://www.justice.gov/epstein

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/doj-disclosures

New Delhi, India – The latest release of documents related to the US Justice Department investigation into the crimes of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein has set off political infernos around the globe for featuring the names of world leaders.

The tranche of files, which includes more than three million pages of documents, was released on Friday. This is the largest release since US President Donald Trump’s administration passed a law last year to force the release of the documents.

https://www.aljazeera.com/

Epstein was convicted in 2008 of sex offences but avoided federal charges – which could have seen him face life in prison – by doing a deal with prosecutors. Instead, he received an 18-month prison sentence, which allowed him to go on “work release” to his office for 12 hours a day, six days a week. He was released on probation after 13 months.

In 2019, he was arrested again on charges including the sex trafficking of minors. But he died by suicide in a Manhattan jail cell in 2019 before his trial could commence.  With this latest disclosure of documents and emails linked to the cases against him, yet more has been revealed about the disgraced financier’s sexual abuse of young girls and his interactions with wealthy and powerful figures from the United Kingdom, Australia, Norway, Slovakia and India.  Simply being named in Epstein documents or emails does not mean a person is guilty of criminal wrongdoing, and, so far, no charges have been brought against individuals named in connection with the sex offender.

With this latest disclosure of documents and emails linked to the cases against him, yet more has been revealed about the disgraced financier’s sexual abuse of young girls and his interactions with wealthy and powerful figures from the United Kingdom, Australia, Norway, Slovakia and India.

Simply being named in Epstein documents or emails does not mean a person is guilty of criminal wrongdoing, and, so far, no charges have been brought against individuals named in connection with the sex offender.

However, the new documents show communications between high-profile figures in the US, including Trump, former President Bill Clinton, and business tycoons such as Bill Gates and Elon Musk.

Documents released on Friday reveal conversations between Anil Ambani, the billionaire chairman of Reliance Group who is close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Epstein. All the conversations took place in the years following Epstein’s first conviction for sex offences in 2008.

The two emailed each other about a range of issues, from sizing up incoming US ambassadors to India to setting up meetings for Modi with top US officials.

On March 16, 2017, two months after Trump was sworn in for his first term as president of the US, Ambani sent an iMessage to Epstein, saying “Leadership” was asking for his help to connect with senior figures in Trump’s circle, including Jared Kushner and Steve Bannon.

Ambani also asked for advice from Epstein about a possible visit by Modi to meet Trump “in may (sic)”, before setting up a call in the messages.

In another iMessage exchange two weeks later, on March 29, Epstein wrote to Ambani: “Discussions re israel strategy dominating modi dates (sic).” Two days later, Ambani informed Epstein that Modi would visit Israel in July and asked the disgraced financier: “who do u know fir track 2”.

On June 26, Modi met Trump in Washington on his first visit since Trump became president.

Then, on July 6, 2017, Modi became the first-ever Indian prime minister to visit Israel. He snubbed the Palestinian Authority, prompting condemnation from Palestinian officials.

That year, New Delhi became the largest buyer of Israeli weapons, amounting to $715m worth of purchases. The defence partnership between the two countries has since continued despite Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza.

This marked a sharp change from India’s history of advocating for the Palestinian cause. It only opened up formal diplomatic ties with Israel in 1992. Before that, Indian citizens had been barred by India from travelling to Israel since the country’s creation in 1948.

After Modi’s visit on July 6, Epstein emailed an unidentified individual he referred to as “Jabor Y”, saying: “The Indian Prime minister modi took advice. and danced and sang in israel for the benefit of the US president. they had met a few weeks ago.. IT WORKED. !”

Ambani Reliance Defence Ltd also entered a joint venture with an Israeli state defence group last year in a deal valued at $10bn over a decade.

Shortly after Modi’s visit to Israel, Larry Summers, former Harvard University president and former secretary of the US Treasury, asked Epstein if he still thought Trump was a better president than rival candidate Hillary Clinton would have been. Epstein responded affirmatively, stating, “yes, defintley India israel. for example great and all his doing (sic).”

In another conversation revealed in the latest document drop, Epstein offered to arrange a meeting between Modi and former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon just hours after Modi had won a thumping majority in the Indian national election in 2019.

In an iMessage to Bannon on May 19, 2019, Epstein wrote, “modi sending someone to see me on thurs,” referring to Ambani.

That Thursday, May 23, Epstein met Ambani in New York and his calendar for that day shows no other meeting scheduled.

After the meeting with Ambani, Epstein wrote to Bannon: “really interesting modi meeting. He won [the 2019 parliamentary elections] with HUGE mandate. His guy said that no one in wash speaks to him however his main enemy is CHINA!   And their proxy in the region pakistan. They will host the g20 in 22.. Totally buys into your vision.”

Epstein then messaged Ambani: “I think mr modi might enjoy meeting steve bannon, you all share the china problem.” And Ambani wrote back: “sure.”  Epstein then wrote back to Bannon: “modi on board.”

It is not immediately clear if Ambani was authorised to approve such decisions on behalf of the Indian government. There is no public record either of a meeting between Bannon and Indian officials that summer.

Hardeep Singh Puri, Indian politician

Another major Indian name featured in the Epstein files is Hardeep Singh Puri, who retired from the Indian Foreign Service to join Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party in 2014.

In the documents are email exchanges between Puri and Epstein that began in June 2014, with the sex offender writing to Puri about Reid Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn, and arranging a visit by Hoffman to India.

Following an exchange of emails, Puri wrote a detailed pitch for investment opportunities in India to Epstein and Hoffman, laying out economic plans in India under the newly elected Modi government, and urging Hoffman to visit. Documents also show Puri met Epstein at his Manhattan townhouse on at least three occasions: February 4, 2015; January 6, 2016; and May 19, 2017.

Puri told Indian media on Sunday that his visits and interactions with Epstein were strictly business-related.

In December 2014, Puri wrote to Epstein again by email. “Please let me know when you are back from your exotic island,” he wrote, asking to set up a meeting in which Puri could give Epstein some books to “excite an interest in India”.

Russian oil imports, cuts by the Reliance Industries, to comply with Western Sanction

 

India’s top importer of Russian oil, the conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd, says it will abide by Western sanctions, ending several days of speculation about how the company will manage new measures targeting Russia’s two largest oil companies. 

Indian refiners have paused purchases of Russian crude oil amid thinning discounts as well as Washington’s threats of punishment for buying the commodity from Russia, two news reports have said.

State-owned Indian refiners Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery did not seek Russian crude over the last week or so, Reuters reported citing sources, who also said that the companies had turned to buying oil from other places such as the UAE and West Africa.

While US President Donald Trump had earlier in July threatened to impose a 100% tariff on countries buying Russian crude unless Moscow entered into a ceasefire with Ukraine in 50 days, on Wednesday (July 30) he said Washington would levy a 25% tariff on India, along with a “penalty” for buying energy and military equipment from Russia, on August 1.

Following Trump’s announcement on Wednesday, the Union government asked state-owned refiners to draft plans for buying oil from elsewhere in the event that ‘Russian flows get stopped’, Bloomberg reported. 

 US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said the move was the result of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “refusal to end this senseless war” and encouraged allies to adhere to the new sanctions.

The following day, the European Union adopted its 19th package of measures against Russia, which includes a full transaction ban on Rosneft. The EU has previously said that, starting January 21, it will not receive fuel imports from refineries that received or processed Russian oil 60 days prior to shipping.

Reliance, chaired by billionaire businessman Mukesh Ambani, operates the world’s biggest refining complex in western Gujarat. The company has purchased roughly half of the 1.7-1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of discounted Russian crude shipped to India, the news agency Press Trust of India reported this week.

Hiren Joshi - case

 Hiren Joshi - case

This X post shares a screenshot of a Grok summary analyzing a Marathi exposé on the Mahadev Betting App scandal, alleging PMO officer Hiren Joshi received Dubai-sourced payments for media influence amid ED-CBI probes into ₹50,000+ crore hawala transactions.

 
The scandal involves sudden resignations by Joshi (transferring duties to Ashwini Vaishnaw before vanishing), Hitesh Jain from the Law Commission in October 2025, and Navneet Sehgal from Prasar Bharati on December 2, 2025, linked to efforts to loosen betting laws and sponsor Bollywood events.

 
Social media trends like #MahadevBettingScam demand CBI inquiries into unverified U.S. partnerships and media silence, contrasting opposition calls for probes with limited mainstream coverage, though official ties remain unconfirmed by primary sources.

Since 2019, Hiren Joshi, Officer on Special Duty or OSD (Communications & Information Technology) in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), has been a prominent figure in the nation's most influential office as a joint secretary. He is a constant presence in the WhatsApp messaging feeds of well-known major media journalists, controlling headlines and, according to many, choosing the direction and type of coverage that big media should pursue. Since "there were no WhatsApps from him" after October 12, 2025, he has been the subject of numerous social media discussions and the news due to his silent benching. According to several journalists, the instructions vanished after November 24.

He has recently returned to WhatsApp groups, which has sparked additional curiosity and conjecture.  Congress leader and spokesperson Pawan Khera asked some questions yesterday (December 3), stating that Joshi had played a significant role in "strangling Indian democracy" and that people needed to know "why his associate in the Law Commission was unceremoniously asked to leave and vacate his house" as well as "who are his business partners? India is entitled to information.  

Khera mentioned discussions that were "being debated on social media" regarding Joshi's potential business connections and international trips. An article on the press conference appears to have been removed from an online news source in the meanwhile.  According to Open Magazine, "Hiren Joshi isn't simply part of Modi's ecosystem—he is the ecosystem's motherboard," according to Newslaundry. The point person for Modi. The man who created the entire NaMo web universe from scratch, rather than just offering the PM advice on digital strategy. 

 Another notable change in the Modi government's typically opaque communications apparatus is the abrupt resignation of senior former IAS official Navneet Sehgal as chairwoman of Prasar Bharti, which was accepted within a day of his submitting his paperwork.  Speculation about what was going on and whether Sehgal's abrupt departure was connected in any way to Joshi's "absence" was further stoked by his resignation, which came just 20 months into a three-year term.It is well known that there have been unprecedented departures of Modi government appointees from important positions, such as finance secretary S.C. Garg, governors of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) like Urjit Patel, Ashok Lavasa from his position as India's first election commissioner, and Arun Goyal, another election commissioner, just days before the general election was scheduled to be announced. However, no justification was provided, and "personal reasons" were typically mentioned.

 

GDP, IMF ranks India "C" and Indian Rupee is falling against the US dollar

 

GDP,  IMF ranks India "C" and 

Indian Rupee is falling against  the US dollar 

GDP: 

Economists like former CEA Arvind Subramanian have suggested that India's GDP calculation is overestimated, despite the government defending its methodology. These criticisms stem from the country's reliance on out-of-date data, assumptions for the large unorganized sector, problems with the deflator (WPI vs. CPI/PPI), data gaps for quarterly estimates, and differences between production and expenditure methods.

Important objections and worries:

     Outdated Base Year & Deflator: Unlike a Producer Price Index (PPI) or CPI, India utilizes the 2011–12 base year and WPI (Wholesale Price Index) for deflation, which does not adequately reflect the expanding services sector.

     Data Gaps in the Informal Sector:  Particularly following events like demonetization or GST, estimations of the enormous unorganized and informal economy may be inaccurate due to the heavy reliance on assumptions and outdated surveys.

     Production versus Expenditure  Discrepancy: Recent years have shown significant positive disparities between GDP estimated from the production side (value added) and the expenditure side (spending), indicating mismeasurement.
Quarterly Approximations:  Quarterly estimates are based on assumptions and may not accurately reflect short-term changes due to a lack of timely and reliable primary data.

  Overestimating  Statements:  Although this was debatable, former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian asserted that methodological changes caused India's GDP growth to be overestimated by almost 2.5 percentage points between 2011 and 2017.

The co-founder of Hotmail, Sabeer Bhatia, has harshly criticized India's GDP calculation method, calling it "basic maths" that the nation is doing "completely wrong." He went on to say that the entire nation is "lying about GDP" and contrasted it with the approach taken by other nations, including the US, where GDP is closely correlated with actual labor hours and labor value. 

In a podcast with a San Francisco YouTuber, Bhatia discussed his "brutal observations and counsel for India."
"India's GDP calculation is incorrect."

On the podcast, Bhatia declared, "The entire nation is lying, our GDP is all wrong. You only need two seconds to have a look at how they are computing GDP."
Everywhere in the globe, including the United States, GDP is calculated using the total number of person hours worked by all. Everybody is paid on an hourly basis. Bhatia continued, "Everyone calculates how many hours of work they put in, reports that to the government, pays a certain amount of tax, and that determines your GDP."

Bhatia continued by outlining what he saw to be a weakness in the Indian system. In India, if I give you Rs 1000, 18% GST is applied, and if you return Rs 1000 to me, the same 18% GST is applied. It is valued at Rs 2,000 GDP. Neither you nor I have completed any job. I simply gave you my money. Giving money is not a job.
This is fundamental math, I'm saying. We are miscalculating GDP. Nevertheless, our economy will grow to be worth 4.2 trillion, 20 trillion, or 15 trillion. No matter how many trillions we make, it doesn't matter to me. We're counting it incorrectly," he continued.

IMF:

Arun Kumar, a former professor of economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, and Pronab Sen, India's former chief statistician, stated that the country's GDP is unreliable in two parallel interviews that were presented as a single package to discuss the IMF's decision to give India's national accounts statistics, which include important figures like GDP and GVA, a "C," the second lowest grade.

They claimed that India's estimation of the unorganized sector, which includes agriculture and accounts for over 45% of GDP, is the source of the issue. In order to do this, India estimates the performance of the unorganized sector using the organized sector as a stand-in. However, if the two sectors are heading in different paths, as was the case following the epidemic, GST, and demonetization,..

According to Arun Kumar, the real GDP of India is likely 48% lower than the official estimate. Additionally, he finds it extremely hard to accept the 8.2% GDP growth rate for the second quarter that was announced yesterday.

"We are overestimating the unorganized sector, which is actually falling, so even though the government claims it is $3.8 trillion, my estimate is probably still $2.5 trillion. The economy is over 50% inaccurate." This is accumulating over time, according to Kumar.

 Prices for consumers

The GDP statistic we routinely generate is currently "no better and no worse than what it was 10 years ago," according to Pronab Sen. Sen pointed out that "we make a lot of assumptions" and "we just don't have quarterly data for most things" when it comes to the quarterly GDP estimates.

You now have to rely on assumptions in the absence of data. You strive to do the best you can by looking at previous partnerships and trends. However, this issue won't be resolved until we reach a point where the majority of the data required for quarterly estimation are physically gathered," he continued, implying that even the greatest efforts at this point won't be sufficient to do so.  Sen acknowledged that, despite the lack of clear solutions, we might be overestimating the unorganized sector. Sen points out that the bases are frequently out of date and fail to take shifting consumer markets into consideration.  

Sen stated that although the GDP growth rate in agriculture is 3.5% or 3.6%, the prices of agricultural products have been declining. Sen expressed doubts about the GDP growth rate of 8.2% for the second quarter, which was formally announced yesterday. He acknowledged that inflation is modest, but said it is difficult to understand that it is only 0.5% when nominal GDP is 8.7%. 

rupee is falling against dollar 

The Indian rupee is falling to all-time lows and is practically in free fall mode. The currency's deterioration run over the previous few days continued on Wednesday morning as it broke through the 90 mark versus the dollar.  The currency has lost more than 5% of its value so far this year. 

 #1 Reduced RBI support and a slowdown in capital inflows

A significant slowdown in capital inflows and a decrease in Reserve Bank of India (RBI) involvement are contributing factors to the rupee's decline. The RBI sold a net $55.8 billion through spot and forward markets between October 2024 and January 2025 of last year. Only in August 2025 did this year's intervention get up speed, with the RBI unloading $36.3 billion between August and November. 

 "The shift reflects the build-up of net dollar short positions in the RBI's forward book," according to IDFC First Bank.

The forward book was already $84.3 billion as of March 2025 at the beginning of FY26, which made it more difficult for the central bank to deploy buy-sell swaps without depleting spot dollar sales liquidity. By lessening the strain on the liquidity of the banking system, less foreign exchange intervention has also promoted monetary policy autonomy.
# 2 US-India trade agreement postponed

The negative trade moves against India are another factor contributing to the decline. Earlier this year, the US levied a high 50% tariff on India. India has recently cut back on its purchases of Russian oil, but the two nations were still unable to come to a trade agreement, and the effective tariff is still in place.

#3 Record-breaking prices for bullion and metals 

"Record-high metal and bullion prices have further worsened India's import bill," according to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, in addition to high US tariffs that continue to limit export competitiveness.

#4 External borrowing and soft FDI

This year, foreign investors have removed almost $17 billion from Indian stocks, although net foreign direct investment flows have remained low. External commercial borrowings have been weak, adding to the burden and demonstrating how widespread capital outflows have increased rupee pressure.